Real Estate Prices to Fall in 2011?

Just read this Inman News article by Steve Bergsman It had a great analysis of the housing market. We all want a recovery of the housing market, it is a key indicator to a healthy economy. But are we being too optimistic?

Reliable trend analysis can only be established with a large data set over a longer period of time: 1-3 years. I leave the “forecasting” to the economic experts…it is basically an educated guess. I am in the trenches and can come up with my own hypothesis on continued trends, but it is more specific to my areas of expertise…southern NH. Things have been fairly stable, entry level properties in good condition sell quick, investors are busy buying and flipping, the mortgage market is loosening up, and consumer optimism is increasing.

There are so many excellent points in this article, but every area is different. We are in the slowest time of year for southern New Hampshire real estate: winter. In areas with severe winter conditions the fluctuations between seasons can be large. Therefore short trend analysis is unreliable and possibly misleading and may or may not reliably indicate the future market trends. The coming spring market is just around the corner and without the artificial boost from last years tax credit we will get a more accurate picture of the real estate health.

So I am waiting until spring to give-up on my real estate recovery. Call me an educated optimist…

-Just my thoughts.

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